Analysis: It looks like Susan Collins bet wrong on Brett Kavanaugh and Roe v. Wade

“My fervent hope is that Brett Kavanaugh will work to lessen the divisions in the Supreme Court so we have far fewer 5-4 decisions and so that public confidence in our judiciary and our highest court is restored,” she said in a floor speech announcing her decision.

In an interview with CNN the following year, Collins, who supports abortion rights, said that Kavanaugh “said under oath many times, as well as to me personally many times, that he considers Roe to be ‘precedent upon precedent’ because it had been reaffirmed in the Casey v. Planned Parenthood case.”

Similarly, Collins told CNN in 2018 that she didn’t believe Justice Neil Gorsuch, who she voted to confirm the previous year, would want to overturn Roe v. Wade.

“If this leaked draft opinion is the final decision and this reporting is accurate, it would be completely inconsistent with what Justice Gorsuch and Justice Kavanaugh said in their hearings and in our meetings in my office,” she said. “Obviously, we won’t know each Justice’s decision and reasoning until the Supreme Court officially announces its opinion in this case.”

Asked by CNN if she was misled by Kavanaugh, Collins said: “My statement speaks for itself.”

Collins is technically right that “we won’t know each Justice’s decision and reasoning.” But a bit of simple math suggests that how the votes might play out.

Which means that the other five conservative-leaning justices (Alito, Kavanaugh, Gorsuch, Amy Coney Barrett and Clarence Thomas) would likely have to be on the side of overturning Roe.

Collins may well be the only person shocked that Kavanaugh (and Gorsuch) look to be on the side of overturning Roe. She was widely derided for her blind trust in Kavanaugh’s word in particular during the contentious confirmation process — and for her willingness to confirm his lifetime appointment to the court.